NFC East Fantasy Preview

Quarterback: Kirk Cousins

 

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I chose to follow the Captain into battle at the quarterback position for the NFC East. Dak Prescott had a great season last year and as much as I believe that he’s going to have another decent season, I need Prescott to prove it to me one more time. Although Cousins is surrounded by drama in D.C., He’s proven the past two years that he’s a top 10 quarterback. He averaged 307.3 yards a game. He finished the 2016 season with 4,917 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Let’s not forget that he added 4 touchdowns on the ground as well. Kirk has great weapons around him this year even with the departure of Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson. Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed are solid assets and the Redskins made a great acquisition in Terrelle Pryor to help the deep game out.

It looks like Cousins and the Redskins aren’t coming to a contract agreement, but since it’s basically a contract year for him, Cousins is bound to put up solid numbers to prove to NFL teams that he will be worth the money next season. The Redskins need to realize that they haven’t had a franchise quarterback like Cousins for years. The Redskins always seem to make the unpopular move, but let’s save that conversation for another day.

 

Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott                        

 

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I will never support anything Dallas related, but talent is talent. Zeke is something special. Dallas got the running back the franchise has been searching for since Emmitt Smith. He had 322 carries resulting in 1,631 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns, and 363 receiving yards. Elliott is a no brainer top 3 pick in all fantasy drafts this year. The only thing that might bring some hesitation to fantasy owners is that he has the possibility of being suspended up to 4 games. He could have a similar situation to that of LeVeon Bell last season. The question that remains is when you would draft him if he faces suspension. If you can be sure to hand-cuff him, Zeke still needs to be drafted in the first round of leagues. His production when he comes back from the suspension cannot be overlooked. Even though he could be out for a quarter of the season, he will win your match-ups as soon as he comes back. Another monster year coming up for Ezekiel Elliott.

 

Wide Receiver: Odell Beckham Jr.

 

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No one comes close in this division. He’s averaged 96 receptions over the past 3 years, which is incredible. He’s also had double digit touchdowns in every season that he’s been in the league. I have him as the second best wide receiver behind Antonio Brown. In my opinion, Beckham could take the title this coming year. His off-season workouts are insane. The Giants also got him help on the outside with adding Brandon Marshall. Beckham will now have single coverage against him, which is scary. I expect nothing less than 1,400 and 10 touchdowns. Beckham will be exciting to watch as usual.

 

Tight End: Jordan Reed

 

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Last season was a disappointing season for Reed. He under- performed and it was filled with injuries. He only played 12 games. We have really only seen his full potential in 2016, and even then he didn’t play in every single game. Reed has to stay healthy this season if he doesn’t want his reputation damaged. Without question he is the second best tight end in the league next to Rob Gronkowski. The targets and opportunities will be there for Reed. He just needs to stay healthy. I expect Reed to play 14 games have around 850 yards with 9 touchdowns.

 

Honor Roll: Paul Perkins

 

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I’m extremely excited about Paul Perkins. The Giants backfield has been terrible to say the least. They haven’t had a solid running game in years. Rashad Jennings was disappointing and the Giants have been terrible at focusing on their ground game, which is why they haven’t exceeded to the next level in the past couple of seasons. Perkins finished strong last season. He averaged 4.1 yards per game. All reports coming out of New York is that they are excited about what Perkins can do and he will be handed the reigns in the backfield.  He’s currently ranked as the RB 29 with an ADP of 77. This is great value that fantasy owners will be able to grab in the mid to late rounds. Perkins will be a great flex play with the high possibility of being an RB2 this year. Take a chance this year with the New York Giants backfield.

NFC South Fantasy Preview

Quarterback: Drew Brees

 

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This is one of the best divisions at the quarterback position. Cam Newton has been phenomenal before, Matt Ryan just got off his best season, and Jameis Winston is a great young quarterback that is continuing to progress. The decision came down to who is the most consistent, which is Drew Brees.

Brees came off another stellar year. He threw for 5,208 yards, 37 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, with a completion percentage of 70%. Brees is similar to Brady in the fact that he seems to only get better with age. He’s 38 and continues to make everyone around him better, which is a big reason I believe why Adrian Peterson signed with the Saints. The development of Michael Thomas will only continue to help Brees with his production. The last time he threw for under 30 TD’s was in 2007. Weather the Saints are in playoff contention, Brees always puts up elite numbers. It does benefit fantasy owners that the Saints defense is always extremely bad and airing it out is Brees’s specialty. Until he decides to hang it up, Brees will always be in the top 5 for fantasy quarterbacks.

 

Running Back: Devonta Freeman

 

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My heart wants to pick AP, since I believe he’s going to come back and dominate, but I had to give the nod to Devonta Freeman. I am a little concerned with Kyle Shanahan leaving, but Freeman will continue to dominate. He’s guaranteed to get fantasy owners 1,000 rushing yards and 10 plus touchdowns. One of the biggest features that Freeman brings to the table, if the not the biggest, is his receiving abilities. He’s so effective in the passing game. The past two seasons he had 462 and 578 receiving yards. If Tevin Coleman wasn’t in the picture stealing some rushes and passes away, Freeman hands down would be in the conversation with David Johnson, LeVeon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott. Two more additional factors that will play into Freeman have another monster year; Freeman desperately wants a new contract and the Falcons want to prove to the NFL that they should have won the Super Bowl. This is a recipe for success.

 

Wide Receiver: Julio Jones

 

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Close draw between Julio Jones and Mike Evans. Evans will have targets taken away due to the signing of Desean Jackson. Not to take anything away from Evans, he will still have a monster year, but Jackson will eat up some fantasy value. I have Jones as my 3rd ranked wide receiver behind Beckham and Brown. He’s one of the best deep threats in the game. He also has a quarterback that is great at throwing the deep ball in Matt Ryan. People might see this last season as a letdown compared to his season in 2015, but I’ll take 1,400 yards with 6 touchdowns any day of the week. The Falcons have already come out and said that they want to go to Julio more in the red zone. The fact that the Falcons want to force Jones the football even more excites me, but scares me more if I have to go against him in fantasy leagues. Expect similar receiving yards, but more touchdowns this coming season.

 

Tight Ends: Greg Olsen

 

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I almost had Greg Olsen as the best wide receiver in this division. The only thing that he lagged in this past season was his touchdowns. He’s had three consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. I’ll keep this short and simple, no other tight end comes close to Olsen in this division. He’s mad about his contract and he wants a big payday one last time. Olsen will get another 1,000 receiving yards this season with about 6 touchdowns.

 

Honor Roll: Desean Jackson

 

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Most people would chose Christian McCaffrey as the breakout candidate in this division. I’m not high on McCaffrey for a few reasons. The Panthers haven’t committed the starting job to him. Jonathan Stewart is still on schedule to get the bulk of the carries. This means that McCaffrey would be a glorified version of Danny Woodhead. He’s a rookie with great potential, but I won’t risk taking one of my first two picks on a rookie that is only going to be involved in the passing game.

This leads me to Desean Jackson. He had a bounce back season last year with a Redskins offense that isn’t consistent. Now he’s the WR2 in an up and coming offense. Mike Evans draws so much attention, and Jackson will finally get the one-on-one coverage that he desires. Winston’s life is going to be so easy with these two receivers. No one in the league can stay with Jackson, thus he will easily get 1,000 yards with 7 touchdowns. He will be a great WR2 for fantasy owners. He’s currently ranked at a WR #35 with an ADP of 83. This is great value in the middle of the draft. Desean Jackson is about to go back to his Philly days where he took the league by storm.

Player Profile: Jamison Crowder

Jamison Crowder

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Rank: WR 31

ADP: 73

Risk Level: Low

 

Pros:

  • Last two seasons has averaged over 10 yards a catch
  • Caught almost 70% of his targets
  • 7 touchdowns
  • Fighting to be the number one WR after Garcon and Jackson left
  • Good value going around the 6th or 7th round
  • Plays against Philly and Dallas; who have defenses that are on the weaker end of the NFL

 

Cons:

  • Terrelle Pryor being brought in COULD demand more targets.
  • Only 3 games over 100 yards
  • 8 games with 3 catches or less

 

Analysis:

Jamison Crowder is getting over looked a lot this year due to the acquisition of Terrelle Pryor. Crowder is going into his third year and looking to make a huge splash. We saw last season that Crowder and Cousins had extremely good chemistry, which they only have been building on this off-season. Cousins also trusted Crowder in crucial situations. I don’t see this changing this coming season. Coach Gruden has already mentioned that Crowder could be looking for a bigger role coming into the 2017 season which is exciting to hear.

 

The big question mark is the fact that the Redskins brought in Terrelle Pryor. A lot of people, including fantasy gurus, are high on Pryor this year. Don’t get me wrong, I think Pryor is going to put up good numbers, but I think you could get similar numbers from Crowder with better value in the later rounds. Terrelle Pryor is going at the WR 18 and off the board around the 38th position, which is around the middle of the 3rd round. Other players that you could get around that area would be Sammy Watkins and Keenan Allen, who have proven that if healthy, they can be WR1’s. The guys going around Jamison Crowder are Paul Perkins, Stefon Diggs and Frank Gore. I would take Crowder over all of those guys. I think you are going to get more consistency from Crowder than the not so sexy Frank Gore or a questionable Stefon Diggs. The return on your investment will be more significant if drafting Crowder. He had 99 targets last season with a good wide out tandem in Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. Crowder is next up after Reed on Cousin’s favorites list.

 

I really do like the Washington Redskins offense a lot this year. I think they are going to be a high power offense that will put up a lot of big numbers against a bunch of weaker defenses. The big question mark in Washington has been there defense. For fantasy owners this isn’t necessarily bad news. If the Redskins continue to be in shoot outs and get caught playing catch-up, Crowder will see a lot of garbage time. This only adds more value to him.

 

If I had to choose between Crowder and Pryor I’d have to give the edge to Crowder. He’s got more significant upside and has been in the offense for three years. He’s a better value than giving up your third round draft pick for a question mark player in Pryor.

NFC North Top Fantasy Players

We will be going through each division in the NFL and informing you of who the top fantasy players are at each position. We will start with the NFC North.

Quarterback– Aaron Rodgers

 

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Would you really choose someone else in this division? Matthew Stafford is a far distant second. Rodgers takes the position without question. Predicted as the number one fantasy quarterback, Rodgers looks to top his phenomenal season last year with 40 touchdowns, 4,428 passing yards, only 7 interceptions, and 4 touchdowns on the ground. He didn’t finish the way he wanted to last season after a late exit in the playoffs. I would say that he is playing with a chip on his shoulder, but Rodgers always seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder. I expect nothing less than the numbers produced last season for Rodgers. I don’t like picking a quarterback in the first round, but he’s the only quarterback that can be justified to draft in the first round of fantasy drafts.

 

RB-Jordan Howard

 

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Yes I know what you’re thinking…  How can anything good come from the Chicago Bears organization? It’s just been full of letdown fantasy performers—a.k.a. Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffrey, and Martellus Bennett. For some reason players aren’t that successful in Chicago, except for the running back situation. Matt Forte was always a reliable stud and it seems that Jordan Howard will be that way as well. He started 13 games and produced 1,313 yards with 6 touchdowns. It would have been great to see how he would have finished with another 3 games as the starter. The fact is, Chicago will run their offense through Howard. They have no other offensive weapons, especially with the quarterback situation. Weather Glennon starts for more than 6 games or Trubisky comes in, John Fox will have no choice but to hand the ball off as a safety net for these in-experience quarterbacks. The volume is going to be there for Howard. He will be a good bell cow this coming season for fantasy owners.

 

WR-Jordy Nelson

 

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We didn’t have a choice but to choose the number one quarterback’s number one target, Jordy Nelson. He’s starting to get up there in age, but Rodgers makes life at the wide receiver position easier. Nelson finished with 14 touchdowns last season, which is why fantasy owners are drafting him extremely high this season. I don’t blame them at all, averaging almost a touchdown a game is great reliability to count on in your week-to-week matchups. Rodgers will throw about an average of 3 touchdowns per game. Nelson is guaranteed to get at least 1 per game and he proved that last year. Yes, Adams has finally stepped up and become the second wide receiver that Green Bay needs and will take targets and touchdowns away, but Nelson will be left in more one-on-one coverage. I’ll take a less guarded Jordy Nelson any day, especially in the red zone. Nelson is one of the few wide receivers that I would recommend leaning on like a bell cow.

 

TE-Kyle Rudolph

 

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It was tough choice between Kyle Rudolph and Martellus Bennett. I gave the edge to Rudolph because he has proven to be more durable. Rudolph has come off his best overall season with 840 yards and 7 touchdowns. He had 83 receptions on 132 targets, which made him the number one targeted tight end in the NFL. I don’t see that changing this upcoming season. Sam Bradford has shown his entire NFL career that he loves his tight ends and loves throwing the football 15 yards or less. Kyle Rudolph is the biggest target and red zone threat that the Minnesota Vikings have. Bradford had great chemistry with him last season and looks to build on it here this season. He will no doubt produce the same type of numbers or better. I have him producing 850 receiving yards with 9-10 touchdowns this season. No doubt you will easily be able to rely on him as a TE1 that you will be able to get late in fantasy drafts.

 

Breakout Candidate: Ameer Abdullah

 

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Not really a sleeper pick anymore, but anyone chosen out of the Detroit backfield is considered a sleeper or high risk. He’s been injured prone and looks to prove that he can handle the workload of a starting running back in the NFL. It’s do or die for Abdullah this year. If he doesn’t produce significant numbers or shows that he can’t stay healthy, his days as being a starter in the NFL will be shattered. With this being said, I believe that he will be productive this season. He should get around 700 rushing yards with 400 receiving yards and 6-7 total touchdowns. Abdullah will be a great flex play and a productive RB2/RB3. His ADP is around 72, which I believe is a perfect match with his value. This year is the year to bet on Ameer Abdullah, you will get the return on your investment.

Path To Success

Let’s be real, fantasy football never truly ends for any of us. We possibly take one month to gather our feelings if we fell short of victory, but then it’s right back to the grind. At least I hope that’s the case for most of you. If you take more time off then you know why you didn’t win your league. Below is listed some recommendations to being more productive in the days leading up to your fantasy football drafts.

Listen to Podcasts

There are so many podcasts out there regarding fantasy football. First, you should narrow it down to 3 podcasts that you like. I would recommend that these podcasts that you are listening to have some years of experience underneath their belts. The more you listen, the more ideas and perspectives you will get. It’s always good to have an array of viewpoints so you don’t become narrow minded. Not to mention that listening to podcasts is addicting. With addiction, comes obsession, with obsession comes knowledge, with knowledge comes winning.

 

Read a New Article Everyday

There is so much material out there to review, study, and analyze. Read as much material as you can get your hands on. You will realize different trends writers are seeing around the NFL and the patterns of who these beat writers, insiders, and reporters believe are going to have a good year’s, who’s going to have a bad year, steals, and potential busts. This will help to start shaping the way you will want in your lineup to look like. Now, don’t believe everything you read or hear of course. Be smart enough to be able to weave out the stupid advice and analysis people are barking off.

 

Start Mocking

Practice makes perfect. It’s going be difficult because the projections and rankings will constantly be changing from week to week. Drafting now will make you better at adjusting to curveballs later on. It’s good to draft from each position to see what your team would be like and to try different combinations as you go along. This way you will be well prepared to draft at whatever position that is assigned to you. Trust me it’s never too early to start mocking. You should be mocking at least once a day. If not, then it explains why you never win your fantasy leagues.

 

Develop Your Cheat Sheet

It’s never too early to develop a cheat sheet and strategy for your draft. Developing your cheat sheet is critical. Do your homework, identify worthy sleepers based on your league settings. Prepare yourself for who you want to take in the early rounds, mid rounds, late rounds. Start taking notes on what teams have the easiest strength of schedule, bye weeks, and ADP’s of players that you have high on your radar. Decide how you want to draft. Is it going to be best available player or based off team need? Make sure to have a list developed of your rankings and tiers for each position.  You get my drift, you can never be too prepared for the draft and the days leading up to the draft.

Fantasy Profile: Kelvin Benjamin

Player Profile: Kelvin Benjamin

 

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Rank: WR 33

ADP: 66

Risk Level: Low

Pros: He’s 6’5 and a big target in the Red Zone. Benjamin has got the threat of double digit touchdowns every season. He’s also Newton’s second favorite target besides Greg Olsen. All the other wide receivers on the Panthers belong in the American Flag football League. Kelvin has 60 plus receptions in both seasons that he’s been healthy and averaged about 14.3 yards on those receptions. He’s going to get you just about 1,000 receiving yards along with a high end number for touchdowns.

 

Cons: He’s got weight issues. Possibly Eddie Lacy’s best friend in the off-season. Benjamin isn’t as quick as most WR1’s and creating separation can be difficult for him sometimes. His play depends on Cam Newton’s health and consistency.

 

Analysis

For some reason critics aren’t very fond of Kelvin Benjamin. He’s by far the best wide receiver option that Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers have. We won’t include Greg Olsen since he’s at the tight end position.  Maybe there is so much hate centered around him because he’s been hanging out with Eddie Lacy at the local burger joint in Seattle in the off-season. I couldn’t blame him if he’s trying to get weight incentives added into his current or future contract. Who wouldn’t want to make an extra $55,000 when trimming down? Eddie Lacy might have the best contract known to man since he’s the star contestant for biggest loser for the Seattle Seahawks.

Kelvin is currently ranked as the 33rd best wide receiver in the league, which is great for fantasy owners.  This means great value later in the draft. Benjamin has put up decent numbers over the past 3 years, or should I say two seasons since he was injured in 2015. He finished last season with 941 receiver yards and 7 touchdowns. Let’s not forget the inconsistent play by Newton and the injuries that he was playing through. I would say Benjamin’s  numbers are pretty decent since Newton didn’t play at his best. Newton’s healthy now, and the Panthers are looking to preserve his body, which means that they might hold him back in the red zone and distribute the ball more. This means more targets for Benjamin. He’s the biggest target the Panthers got and I expect them to use the 6’5 wide outs capabilities significantly more.

The second best wide receiver on the Panthers is Devin Funchess and he should be on the practice squad. Newton needs to put up big numbers this season to contend in the NFC South, which means that he has to throw the ball deep to Benjamin. He’s already averaging 14.3 yards per catch. I’ll definitely, without question, take Kelvin Benjamin as my WR2 or WR3. The way mock drafts are currently going, fantasy owners will be able to add this asset to the team in the mid to late rounds. This is a big time steal.

Drafting Benjamin is an extremely low risk option. The targets, numbers, and production will come from Benjamin this season. I look for Benjamin to out produce his current ranking and ADP considerably.

I do want to mention that Kelvin Benjamin has started shedding some of the weight that he put on this off-season. So don’t let the diet issues play to strongly into your decision making.

Fantasy Player Profile: Carlos Hyde

Player Profile: Carlos Hyde

 

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Rank: RB 16

ADP: 33

Risk Level: Medium

 

Pros: Carlos Hyde averaged 4.6 yards per carry over 13 games.  He is the number one back heading into training camp. It’s looking like Hyde will get over 200 plus touches this season.  Not to mention that this is a contract year for Hyde, which will usually makes production better.

 

Cons: Hyde is coming off MCL surgery and is entering a new offense. Last season, without his 193-yard game, Hyde only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. This was almost a full yard less than the previous year. He didn’t have a rushing touchdown after week 4 and had some serious fumble problems. Hyde just couldn’t hang onto the football. In addition, he could also lose his starting position to rookie Joe Williams later in the season.

 

Analysis: Carlos Hyde is one of those guys this season that I’m very cautious to draft at his current ADP.  Carlos Hyde has never passed the eye test for me over his first three seasons. He’s battled multiple injuries and never seems to fully get going. He only had two games with over 100 yards. A lot of fantasy writers have Carlos as a low end RB1 this season. It’s really hard to see this in San Francsico’s new offense. Hyde is a power run guy and always has been. Going into Kyle Shanahan’s outside-zone system leaves me very cautious. Beat writers in the area seem to have big questions about whether Hyde will retain the starting job. That is a huge problem for me if I’m going to draft him with my 3rd or 4th round pick.

Guys that are going around Hyde include Isaiah Crowell, Marshawn Lynch and Christian McCaffrey. Looking at those RB’s that are being drafted, the only person I don’t take over Carlos is the rookie McCaffrey. I think you are going to get more consistency and durability between Crowell and Lynch. There are wide outs like Demaryius Thomas who I would take in the 4th round over Hyde as well. If Hyde falls in your draft to the 5th round, then that is the place that I believe he is worth taking. Anything after that is great value.

If you do draft Carlos Hyde, keep an eye on the waiver wire for Joe Williams. The rookie could be a nice pick up if Hyde gets hurt or just isn’t performing. Tim Hightower is on the depth chart as well, but we’ve seen Tim Hightower before and the 49ers have nothing to lose. I think they give the rookie the workload over Hightower. Hit the caution button when it comes to Hyde, there is definitely better value around his ADP.

Does the Value Equal the ADP with These Rookies

Leonard Fournette

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Leonard Fournette is a linebacker posing as a running back. Before his ankle injury, Fournette nearly cleared 2,000 yards and over 20 touchdowns in his sophomore campaign, demonstrating his ability to be a workhorse. His comparison to AP is a bit premature, but from a purely physical standpoint it’s hard not to see the correlation. His ADP has him anywhere from 15th overall to 25th, however his ADP has been rising on a weekly basis.

Let’s put things into perspective here, the Jaguars haven’t had any 1,000 yard rusher in 5 years and to add on to this, none of them have averaged over 6 touchdowns. T.J. Yeldon isn’t much competition for Fournette, but he did get targeted 73 times for receptions which was more than guys like Devonte freeman and Demarco Murray. Fournette was drafted to help revitalize this offense and hopefully get the ground game to where it needs to be. Fournette’s production this season will be 1,100 total yards and 7 touchdowns which doesn’t match his top of second round ADP, but will no doubt be the bell cow of this offense.

 

Christian McCaffrey

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McCaffrey was drafted 8th overall. He brings a lot of sex appeal to the Carolina offense and might be the talent to spark Cam Newton’s resurgence. Translating to Fantasy, there’s still a big back in the offense by the name of Jonathan Stewart. He ran for 824 yards with 9 touchdowns. Although he is never around for a full season, he’s productive when healthy, which could diminish McCaffrey’s value in standard leagues. In PPR he is the clear cut number one running back option for the Panthers and will be utilized heavily like players such as Ty Montgomery and Danny Woodhead.

He does, however, possess a higher talent level and ultimately can be a three down back in this league. The downfall to his game is his size, which makes him a potential risk when he runs between the tackles. Regardless he was drafted to be heavily utilized in this offense. Expect him to flirt with 1,100 total yards and 5 touchdowns. I still think his ADP is a bit high right now, but he will end up being a high end flex option to RB2.

 

Joe Mixon

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The most intriguing rookie running back of them all is Joe Mixon. He possess true bell cow capabilities. He was the most talented running back in the draft but due to off the field issues he slid all the way to the Bengals. He joins a crowded back field, but has an opportunity with Giovani Bernard’s injury and the lack of production that has come from Jeremy Hill. Hill has struggled with efficiency which isn’t anything new. He had a phenomenal rookie campaign, but that was about it. From then on, the only thing he was good at was disappointing fantasy owners. The Bengals back field is craving a jolt of new energy, which Joe Mixon can easily provide with his type of talent.

John Ross, AJ Green and Eifert will give ample room for a running back to run wild on defenses. Expect Joe Mixon to eventually take the mantle. Since there are other mouths to feed, Mixon will finish with around 1000 yards and 6 touchdowns. He will take over the starting job after a few games, most likely around week 4 or 5.

His ADP currently is around the 3rd round. His ceiling is sky high and he might be the only one of these three running backs that could be justified by this current ADP, if it remains.